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HNW clients expect Labour to win election

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HNW clients expect Labour to win election

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Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer

 

High Net Worth investors – those with assets of more than £250,000 – expect Labour would if a general election if it was held this week, according to new research.

The research from wealth manager and Financial Planner Saltus found that 27% of HNW investors say they would vote Labour, 16% for the Conservative and 15% Liberal Democrat.

In addition, 31% think Labour would win the most seats compared to just 13% who think the Conservatives would have a majority of seats.

However, over-55s believe the Conservatives still deserve support with 29% planning to vote Conservative compared to 21% planning to vote Labour. However many over-55s also believe Labour will win.

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The findings are part of the Saltus Wealth Index which is showing rising confidence among HNW clients with a rise to 64.4, up 8% compared to November 2022 shortly after the Liz Truss Budget

The index suggests Labour is currently the most-backed political party among British high net worth individuals. 

The index is compiled with Dr Mike Peacey at the University of Bristol and based on a biannual poll of 2,000 HNWIs. It tracks confidence in the UK economy and personal finances.

Saltus said the rise in the index of 4.9 points or 8% since November 2022 comes after the Liz Truss Budget hit confidence. The Index, however, is still well below the highs of 67.7 recorded a few months before Ms Truss became Prime Minister.

Saltus Index reveals that it is only among HNWIs over the age of 55 where more say they would vote Conservative (29%) than Labour (21%) however regardless of their own vote, 70% expect Labour to take the most seats.

When asked about what HNWIs think the biggest priorities should be for the next government, expanding the economy (23%), reducing inflation (19%) and increasing spending on the NHS (18%) were the three biggest priorities.

Key findings: 

Thinking about if a General Election were held today, who would you vote for? 

Conservative Party

15.70%

Green Party

13.25%

Labour Party

26.70%

Liberal Democrat Party

15.45%

Plaid Cymru

8.85%

Reform Party

8.55%

Scottish Nationalist Party

3.40%

Other political party or independent candidate

1.45%

Unsure/Prefer not to say

6.65%

Saltus Wealth Index

Thinking about if a General Election were held today, who do you think would win the most seats in parliament? 

Conservative Party

13.00%

Green Party

13.60%

Labour Party

31.50%

Liberal Democrat Party

14.10%

Plaid Cymru

9.60%

Reform Party

7.75%

Scottish Nationalist Party

2.80%

Other political party or independent candidate

1.35%

Unsure/Prefer not to say

6.30%

Saltus Wealth Index 

Which of the below do you think should be the biggest priorities for the next government, if any? (Select up to three.) 

Grow the economy

23.35%

Reduce inflation

19.50%

Increase spending on the NHS

17.75%

Reduce inheritance tax

15.05%

Reduce the tax burden on individuals

14.95%

Reduce the national debt

14.75%

Stop the small boats / tackle the refugee crisis

14.70%

More support/funding to Ukraine

14.25%

Increase the number of police on our streets

14.10%

Build at least 300,000 new homes per year

14.05%

Reduce the tax burden on businesses

13.50%

Increase spending on schools

13.10%

Hold water companies to account for wrongdoing

12.65%

Shift decisively to clean, homegrown low carbon power (for example by increasing the number of wind farms)

12.00%

End all public sector worker strikes

11.55%

None of the above

0.40%

Saltus Wealth Index

 

Mike Stimpson, partner at Saltus, said: “It is clear that at this stage high net worth individuals expect the Labour Party to win the next General Election, regardless of their own personal political views.

“The votes of this cohort are important – their support is key to the UK if it is to succeed in the coming decades, with the confidence to invest, create jobs and support wider economic growth. Previous surveys undertaken by Saltus show confidence in the UK economy and in respondents’ own personal finances fell sharply following Liz Truss’s budget in the Autumn of 2022. There has been some recovery in confidence but not yet to levels prior to Truss’s tenure.

“Our research also demonstrates how broad the spectrum of political support is among this group. It is clear the Government still has much to do to win back their confidence and support.”

• The survey included 2,000 UK respondents (aged 18+) who have £250k+ of investable assets. Research was conducted by Censuswide (Censuswide abides by and employs members of the Market Research Society, based on the ESOMAR principles). Research was carried out online in December 2023.  


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