Welcome to this week’s publication of the Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study #241. The Study tracks the technical condition of sixteen of the larger market cap cryptocurrencies. Every week the Studies will highlight the technical changes of the 16 cryptocurrencies that I track as well as highlights on noteworthy moves in individual Cryptocurrencies and Indexes. Past publications including the Weekly ETF Studies can be accessed by paid subscribers via The Market’s Compass Substack Blog.
An explanation of my objective Individual Technical Rankings and Sweet Sixteen Total Technical Ranking go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and select “crypto sweet 16”. What follows is a Cliff Notes version* of the full explanation…
*The technical ranking system is a quantitative approach that utilizes multiple technical considerations that include but are not limited to trend, momentum, measurements of accumulation/distribution and relative strength. The TR of each individual Cryptocurrency can range from 0 to 50. The Sweet Sixteen Total Technical Ranking or “SSTTR” is the sum of the sixteen individual TRs and can be viewed as an overbought / oversold indicator as well as a confirmation / non-confirmation indicator.
The Sweet Sixteen Total Technical Ranking rose +56.14% to 457.5 last week from 293 the previous week. Last week’s SSTTR reading was the highest since October of last year.
Last week all but one of the Sweet Sixteen TRs gained ground, with nine marking double digit gains. Four of the Crypto Currency TRs ended the week in the “green zone” (TRs between 35 and 50) and twelve were in the “blue zone” (TRs between 15.5 and 34.5). That was a marked improvement from the previous week when only one (Bitcoin) ended that week in the “green zone”, eight were in the “blue zone” and seven were in the “red zone” (TRs between 0 and 15). The Average TR gain on the week was +10.28, more than reversing the previous week’s Average TR loss of -4.34 and the Average TR loss three weeks ago -3.03.
The Relative Rotation Graph, commonly referred to as RRGs, was developed in 2004-2005 by Julius de Kempenaer. These charts are a unique visualization tool for relative strength analysis. Chartists can use RRGs to analyze the relative strength trends of several securities against a common benchmark, (in this case the CCi30 Index*) and against each other over any given period (in the case below, daily) over the past two weeks. The power of RRG is its ability to plot relative performance on one graph and show true rotation. All RRGs charts use four quadrants to define the four phases of a relative trend. The Optuma RRG charts rotates from Leading (in green) to Weakening (in yellow) to Lagging (in pink) to Improving (in blue) and back to Leading (in green). True rotations can be seen as securities move from one quadrant to the other over time. This is only a brief explanation of how to interpret RRG charts. To learn more, see the postscripts and links at the end of this Blog.
*The CCi30 Index is a registered trademark and was created and is maintained by an independent team of mathematicians, quants and fund managers lead by Igor Rivin. It is a rules-based index designed to objectively measure the overall growth, daily and long-term movement of the blockchain sector. It does so by indexing the 30 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, excluding stable coins (more details can be found at CCi30.com).
The chart below has two weeks, or 14 days, of relative data points vs. the benchmark, deliniated by the dots or nodes. Not all of the Sweet Sixteen are plotted in this RRG Chart. I have done this for clarity purposes. Those which I believe are of higher technical interest remain.
Dogecoin (DOGE) got off to a slow start but a week ago last Tuesday it started its sharp advance out of the Improving Quadrant exhibiting strong upside Relative Strength Momentum (note the distance between the daily nodes) as it tracked higher in the Leading Quadrant until it rolled over in the middle of last week. Despite the loss of Relative Strength Momentum, it held onto the “pole position” on a Relative Strength basis vs. the CCi30 Index at the end of the week (see the Tabulation Table below). Cosmos (ATOM) made a three Quadrant U-turn out of the Leading Quadrant, falling through the Weakening Quadrant at accelerating clip, ending the week in the Lagging Quadrant. Stellar (XLM) fell directly out of the Leading Quadrant and into the Lagging Quadrant at the start of May exhibiting negative Relative Strength Momentum and at the end of last week it registered the worst Relative Strength Ratio of the Sweet Sixteen.
The “Tabulation Table” below marks the Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum readings of the Sweet Sixteen vs. the CCi30 Index at the end of last week and the two preceding weeks. If there has been an improvement in either the Relative Strength Ratio or the Relative Strength Momentum reading since the preceding week, I have highlighted it in green. If there has been a contraction in either it is highlighted in red and an unchanged reading in either will remain black. The color-coding system has served as a heat map over the past three weeks highlighting either the continued improvement, deterioration, or stasis vs. the benchmark CCi30 Index. The crypto currencies that are in the comments below the RRG chart are highlighted in blue.
*Friday May 1st to Friday May 8th
The CCi30 Index, The Sweet Sixteen Index and all the Sweet Sixteen registered absolute price gains over the past seven days. Last week the average absolute percentage gain was +6.81% vs. the average percentage loss the week before of -1.37%. Both weekly average gains and losses exclude the two Indexes.
The Technical Condition Factors or TCFs are utilized in the calculation of the Individual Crypto Currencies Technical Rankings. What is shown in the excel panel below is the total TCFs of all sixteen TRs. A few TCFs carry more weight than the others, such as the Weekly Trend Factor and the Weekly Momentum Factor in compiling each individual TR of each of the 16 Cryptocurrencies. Because of that, the excel sheet below calculates each factor’s weekly reading as a percentage of the possible total.
A full explanation of my Technical Condition Factors go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and select Crypto Sweet 16
The Daily Momentum Technical Condition Factor or “DMTCF” bounced back to an almost overbought reading of 86.61% reading or 97 out of a possible 112 from 39.29% or 44 two weeks ago which was drop from the reading three weeks ago of 71.34%.
As a confirmation tool, if all eight TCFs improve on a week over week basis, more of the 16 Cryptocurrencies are improving internally on a technical basis, confirming a broader market move higher (think of an advance/decline calculation). Conversely, if more of the TCFs fall on a week over week basis, more of the “Cryptos” are deteriorating on a technical basis confirming the broader market move lower. Last week all eight of the TCFs moved higher, confirming the rally in the broad-based crypto currency market.
The “TSSTCF” Oscillator tallies the eight objective Technical Condition Factors into one overbought / oversold indicator that ranges between 0 and 8.
The CCi30 Index ended the week at the best level (12,310.30) since the end of January. On an intra-week basis, it stuck its head above potential price resistance at April 11, 2025, P2 price pivot low but pulled back late in the week. The 8-Week Stochastic Momentum Index, which I highlighted last week, correctly hinted at the upcoming price advance by not notching a lower low when price did (yellow dashed line) is tracking higher above its signal line. Longer-term MACD also confirms the turn in price momentum as it tracks higher above its signal line. That said, it remains deep in negative territory. The Total Sweet Sixteen Technical Condition Factor has confirmed the start of what may be a move away from key support at the 10,200.00 level by reaching the best level since October third of last year. The 5-Week Moving Average of the Oscillator (redline) is tracking higher and the 21-Week Moving Average (blue line) is beginning to turn up. A follow-through to the rally that can overtake the 12,380.00 will next target the Kijun Plot (green line) and the Upper Parallel (solid gold line) of the Standard Pitchfork (gold P1 through P3).
Today’s Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study is subtitled Finally Out of the Wood’s? There is a question mark at the end of that because there are still a few technical hurdles that the Index needs to vault above. Saing that, Tuesday’s rally out three-month base building price pattern (yellow box) is a major step in the right direction. Key to this being a bona fide break out is that previous price resistance at the 11,910.00 level must hold as newly potential price support and that the Kijun Plot (green line) is not violated. MACD confirms the newly discovered price momentum and is rising above its signal line in positive territory. The 8-Day Stochastic Momentum Index has begun to stall at what has been an over-sold level during the basing price pattern but during previous rallies it has reached the 75.0 level (not shown here). The Sweet Sixteen Daily Momentum / Breadth Oscillator raped it head at the still falling 45-Day Exponential Moving Average (blue line) but has not printed a lower low and the shorter-term 5-Day Moving Average (red line) is stabilizing.
Key to the terminus of the base-building technical thesis is that prices hold the key support at the 11,910.00 level and the Kijun Plot at 11,675.00.
For readers who are unfamiliar with the technical terms or tools referred to in the comments on the technical condition of the CCi30 Index can avail themselves of a brief tutorial titled, Tools of Technical Analysis available on my website.
Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software allows the Technical Rankings to be calculated and back tested.
To receive a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software go to…
