HNW clients expect Labour to win election

The research from wealth manager and Financial Planner Saltus found that 27% of HNW investors say they would vote Labour, 16% for the Conservative and 15% Liberal Democrat.

In addition, 31% think Labour would win the most seats compared to just 13% who think the Conservatives would have a majority of seats.

However, over-55s believe the Conservatives still deserve support with 29% planning to vote Conservative compared to 21% planning to vote Labour. However many over-55s also believe Labour will win.

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The findings are part of the Saltus Wealth Index which is showing rising confidence among HNW clients with a rise to 64.4, up 8% compared to November 2022 shortly after the Liz Truss Budget

The index suggests Labour is currently the most-backed political party among British high net worth individuals. 

The index is compiled with Dr Mike Peacey at the University of Bristol and based on a biannual poll of 2,000 HNWIs. It tracks confidence in the UK economy and personal finances.

Saltus said the rise in the index of 4.9 points or 8% since November 2022 comes after the Liz Truss Budget hit confidence. The Index, however, is still well below the highs of 67.7 recorded a few months before Ms Truss became Prime Minister.

Saltus Index reveals that it is only among HNWIs over the age of 55 where more say they would vote Conservative (29%) than Labour (21%) however regardless of their own vote, 70% expect Labour to take the most seats.

When asked about what HNWIs think the biggest priorities should be for the next government, expanding the economy (23%), reducing inflation (19%) and increasing spending on the NHS (18%) were the three biggest priorities.

Key findings: 

Thinking about if a General Election were held today, who would you vote for? 

Saltus Wealth Index

Thinking about if a General Election were held today, who do you think would win the most seats in parliament? 

Saltus Wealth Index 

Which of the below do you think should be the biggest priorities for the next government, if any? (Select up to three.) 

Saltus Wealth Index

Mike Stimpson, partner at Saltus, said: “It is clear that at this stage high net worth individuals expect the Labour Party to win the next General Election, regardless of their own personal political views.

“The votes of this cohort are important – their support is key to the UK if it is to succeed in the coming decades, with the confidence to invest, create jobs and support wider economic growth. Previous surveys undertaken by Saltus show confidence in the UK economy and in respondents’ own personal finances fell sharply following Liz Truss’s budget in the Autumn of 2022. There has been some recovery in confidence but not yet to levels prior to Truss’s tenure.

“Our research also demonstrates how broad the spectrum of political support is among this group. It is clear the Government still has much to do to win back their confidence and support.”

• The survey included 2,000 UK respondents (aged 18+) who have £250k+ of investable assets. Research was conducted by Censuswide (Censuswide abides by and employs members of the Market Research Society, based on the ESOMAR principles). Research was carried out online in December 2023.  

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